Modelling the entire process this way gives an overview that few companies have today. Instead of asking “can we replace this one boiler,” the model demonstrates and documents the combined, total need across the whole site. The model includes both the industrial site and the DH system, and Figure 1 shows an example for the industrial site alone. Behind this overview are technical specifications for every component and connection in the production process. The model can be simple or detailed, and it is built through collaboration between external engineers and technical staff at the industrial company, who provide crucial insight into internal processes. Setting up and discussing this overview alone often reveals energy efficiency gains before any new investment in supply is even considered. In Denmark, models like this are already used for business cases and planning in the DH sector, so once the industrial model is built, the combined system of industry and DH can be analysed and optimised. Comparing apples and oranges Once the total energy need is mapped, you can quantify and compare very different solutions on equal terms: economy, CO2 emissions, and other factors, such as water use. This is
perhaps the greatest value of a model-based approach — the ability to quantify impact and compare solutions directly. Figure 2 illustrates some of the solutions that can be compared this way, from the two current solutions described above to variations that integrate a DH system. Comparing solutions 1, 2, and 3 can guide which options to investigate further; comparing solutions 3 and 4 can support decisions on the speed of carbon reduction. More solutions can be added, and every one of them can, of course, be compared against the current situation – the reference case – or any other considered scenario that has been modelled. The examples in Figure 2 are simply to illustrate that many types of solutions can be analysed and compared. Solution #1 is pure electrification at the industrial site with no integration with DH. Solution #2 is selling surplus heat to the DH system at a price that can be modelled. Solution #3 replaces heat production at the industrial site with more sustainable heat from the DH system, and to keep the transition manageable for the industrial company, the existing gas boiler will run for much fewer hours but continue to operate to boost the temperature. Solution #4 takes it one step further, and the existing gas boiler
Figure 2: A model-based approach starts by modelling the reference situation, then adapting that model to represent different potential solutions — perhaps adding new production units, new energy infrastructure, or making other adjustments to the system.
22 HOTCOOL no.5 2026
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