avoiding expensive constraints tomorrow. And a 69% increase in capacity might well be worth an extra investment cost of only 13%. When it comes down to it, it’s a matter of probabilities. No one knows exactly what the future holds! The graph below shows the same relative break-even pattern as Table 1 – each line is one probability level, sloping down as the upgrade horizon lengthens. If a line falls below the dashed break-even line (y = 0%), tight sizing becomes the cheaper choice. In all other cases, stepping up one dimension is the cheaper choice.
create for the system as a whole: the ability to densify, expand, connect, and reach better heat sources when the opportunity arises. None of this works if each neighbourhood connection must justify its own future-ready transmission line in isolation. It works when a city-wide heat plan treats the urban area as a single project delivered in phases, with a backbone sized to the long-term plan. As new neighbourhoods connect, they can then pay their share of the cost instead of placing the full burden on whoever happens to build first. COWI’s experience is that tight dimensioning of backbones for new district heating networks often becomes more expensive over time – not only in Denmark, but everywhere. Future-ready sizing is therefore not about overspending today; it is about
For further information please contact: Alexander Schou, axsc@cowi.com Rune Tonell, rune@cowi.com
Figure 1 - Break-even pattern. The graph uses the same underlying assumptions as in Table 1: a sub - urban project area, a weighted-average extra cost of stepping up one dimension of 13%, a service life of 60 years, and a discount rate of 3.5%.
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